The Hormuz crisis has not only impacted crude oil and gas but has also put pressure on container transport. This crisis severely affects the supply of fuel for ships and consequently impacts the flow of global trade.
Reduced Fuel Supply and Pressure on the Market
Disrupted exports, limitations on fuel supply from refineries, and delays in deliveries have clearly pushed the fuel market into a dangerous situation. Currently, fuel is available internationally, but securing the right grade at the right port in a timely manner has become problematic. This issue has serious consequences, especially for ship owners, as delays in deliveries and uncertainty in fuel supply threaten not only travel times but also affect working capital and profitability across all trade routes.
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Fuel Supply Statistics
On October 16, Vitol estimated that the flow of high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) from Hormuz, including Iranian supplies, is at least 800,000 tons per month lower than the levels of February. Meanwhile, successful Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have removed about one million additional tons from the market. At the same time, North Asian refineries have drawn more than one million tons of HSFO for processing in November. Thus, the global transport market is competing for a limited supply of product.
These pressures are now affecting a market that is as reliant on reliable distribution as it is on total production. A ton of fuel waiting for export, committed to another customer or caught behind a disrupted transport route, cannot meet an immediate bunker need.
The current security situation around Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman is not progressing well. Recent delivery assessments indicate that this return is still unstable. For example, ENGINE's outlook on October 13 estimated the delivery times for very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) in Singapore at 1118 days, an increase from 1015 days the previous week.
This geographical crisis is spreading in a scattered manner, with pressures varying depending on the grade of fuel and the delivery location. This dispersion complicates supply without reducing commercial damage. A ship that needs fuel in three days cannot simply absorb a two-week booking timeframe.
Key points in Oman have a better situation in supplying marine diesel, with one supplier announcing a supply time of one to two days. However, the market still does not fully comprehend this situation, and significant pressures remain on supply and prices.
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