Container shipping to the Red Sea is experiencing significant changes. The proposed capacity for services passing through or planning to pass through this region has doubled in the past six weeks. On October 5, 2026, the planned weekly capacity for passage through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait reached 448,273 TEU. This amount is still only 48% of the capacity of 930,679 TEU offered in August 2023, when ships were moving away from the strait due to security issues.
Analysis of Changes in Security Assessments
Experts believe that changes in security assessments during this period are the main reason for the increase in proposed capacity to the Red Sea. While only shipping companies can answer the question of what changes have occurred in security assessments, these changes could have a profound impact on freight rates and related services for 2027.
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October is naturally a good time for increasing Red Sea services, as volumes typically decrease after the peak season. Additionally, the released capacity in the fleet will be partially influenced by current traffic in global ocean networks.
Impact on Freight Rates
These changes in Red Sea services should be given high importance, as this issue will be one of the key factors for container shipping markets in 2027. Freight rates from the Far East to the United States have remained approximately stable, but as mid-October approaches and activities resume, downward pressure is expected.
This week, 58,200 TEU of capacity has been removed from trade from the Far East to the U.S. West Coast and 35,500 TEU from the Far East to the U.S. East Coast. This behavior indicates that shipping companies are looking to protect the current level of rates and likely do not foresee market growth at this time.
Freight rates to the U.S. East Coast are more than three times the rates for shipments to Northern Europe, and this gap cannot be maintained for long. As this gap narrows, rates will decrease towards the U.S. and strengthen less towards Europe, a phenomenon that is currently occurring.
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