Brent crude oil prices reached nearly 110 dollars on Friday night, a figure close to oil prices during the peak of the U.S. and Israel's war against Iran. This price increase has led to numerous speculations in the oil market. Brent crude oil prices have approached this level with an increase of more than 3.3 percent, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has also risen by over two percent to nearly 99 dollars per barrel. This week, West Texas oil has grown by more than 9 percent, and Brent oil prices have also increased by more than four percent.
Analysis of the Oil Market Situation
This surge in oil prices has occurred amid reports indicating a relative balance between oil supply and demand in the global market. According to a report by Kpler, the average oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz in the seven days ending October 13 was 11 million and 620 thousand barrels per day. This figure is close to the oil transit figures through the Strait of Hormuz before the Gulf War, accounting for about 68 to 70 percent of it. On the other hand, the International Energy Agency has reported that demand for oil is decreasing, and it is predicted that in the fourth quarter of 2026, global oil demand will drop by about 2.5 million barrels per day compared to the previous year.
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Wars and Tensions Affecting the Oil Market
The global oil market is currently facing three main wars: the war in the Gulf, which has directly impacted major oil producers; the Russia-Ukraine war, which has affected energy infrastructure; and the Houthi war with Saudi Arabia, which has led to multiple attacks on Saudi oil and gas facilities. Oil prices were around 70 dollars before the U.S. and Israel's war and surged to 110 dollars with the outbreak of war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As tensions eased, prices gradually returned to the 80 dollar range, but have now reached high levels again.
Analysts believe that the increase in attacks on oil tankers and the lack of reduction in the risk of attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz continue to create significant concerns for the market. Analysts at ING Bank have noted that uncertainties in the Middle East and concerns about the continuity of oil flow from the Strait of Hormuz have led the market to factor in significant risks in prices. Additionally, the increase in attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure has raised further concerns for oil market traders.
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