OPEC (OPEC) as one of the largest oil-producing organizations in the world intends to keep its crude oil production quotas unchanged for November in a meeting scheduled for the end of this week. This decision comes as key OPEC producers including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman are facing reduced production and exports due to the repercussions of the Iran war and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
OPEC Oil Production and Export Status
In the monthly OPEC meeting in early September, these countries decided to maintain their production quotas for October 2026, considering that the total production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day that began in 2023 has reached the implementation stage. Throughout this year, OPEC has increased its production quotas, but the actual supply to the market has been significantly lower than needed due to Middle Eastern conflicts and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
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Effects of War on Oil Production
Oil production in many Gulf countries has seriously lagged behind OPEC quotas. This lag has become particularly evident since March 2023 due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which has impacted a large portion of oil supply in the Gulf. The group of oil producers, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, seems to be focusing its discussions and negotiations on the quotas for 2027. This coalition has planned to establish bases for any future reductions.
In recent weeks, OPEC's oil production in August has decreased due to reduced supply from the Saudis, but production in other major OPEC producers has increased. According to published data, Saudi Arabia's oil production in August has decreased due to threats from the Houthis in the Red Sea, and this reduction has negatively impacted OPEC's overall production. However, OPEC's data in the monthly oil market report for September indicates that total crude oil production across the entire OPEC coalition in August was 38.05 million barrels per day, an increase of 300,000 barrels compared to July.
Overall, OPEC's production is currently about 5 million barrels per day lower than pre-war levels, as nearly all Gulf OPEC members have lagged behind their quotas due to ongoing transportation disruptions. This situation has posed serious challenges for the organization and its member countries.
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