Molly Bierman, CFO of Alcoa Aluminum, stated that the 50% reduction in tariffs on Canadian primary aluminum has no significant impact on aluminum prices in the U.S. Midwest. Trade negotiations between the United States and Canada were close to an agreement in late August that could have reduced tariffs to 25%, but these negotiations failed on August 21.
No Significant Impact on Prices
Bierman said at the Jefferies Global Industrials Conference on September 10, "Even if we have a favorable rate with Canada, we do not expect aluminum prices in the Midwest to decrease significantly." She added that a slight decrease may be observed, but prices will not return to pre-tariff levels.
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According to Platts assessments, the primary aluminum P1020 transaction commission in the United States on September 10 was $1.097 per pound plus LME liquidity, delivered to the Midwest with 30-day payment terms. This assessment, known as the Midwest commission, is more than four times higher than its level at the beginning of 2025.
Import Needs and Strong Demand
Bierman also noted that the United States needs to import 4 million tons of aluminum, and Canada can only supply about 3 million tons of this need. If other trading partners receive tariff exemptions and the remaining 1 million tons is supplied, there is a possibility of a reduction in the Midwest commission.
In 2025, Canada supplied 60.5% of U.S. primary aluminum imports. Bierman stated that Alcoa has experienced strong demand for aluminum in North America and Europe despite fluctuations in trade and historically high prices. "Packaging in both markets is very strong, and we are actively engaged in this area." She also mentioned that the aluminum billet market in Europe has been the weakest segment of the market due to challenges arising from the war in the Middle East.
Alcoa has taken advantage of increased production due to high global aluminum prices. Bierman said, "We had a very strong performance in the second quarter and capitalized on these prices. We have reactivated about 30,000 tons of melting capacity and increased production at our plants in Spain, Brazil, Norway, and Australia."
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