Crude oil prices, which had fallen to their lowest level in the past four weeks, experienced an increase this morning. This trend reversal occurred as traders shifted their focus from the U.S. midterm elections to the situation of the war in the Middle East, awaiting the next steps in this regard.
Analysis and Predictions About Oil Prices
Oil prices significantly decreased on Tuesday, especially following reports that Iran might be willing to discuss issues previously deemed non-negotiable. Currently, the price of Brent oil has reached $103.60 and West Texas Intermediate is at $95.98 per barrel. However, two energy consultants warned against excessive optimism regarding the return of oil supply from the Persian Gulf.
Read more: Rystad Energy predicts that oil flow in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war levels
Impacts on Oil Exports from the Persian Gulf
Rystad Energy announced yesterday that it does not expect crude oil flows from the Persian Gulf to return to normal soon, even if the United States and Iran reach an agreement that leads to the end of the war. The company pointed to some U.S. priorities and stated, "We consider it impossible for all these points of contention to be resolved in the coming year." On the other hand, Vortexa reported that oil flows in October through the Strait of Hormuz decreased compared to the previous month, contradicting multiple reports that claimed oil exports from the Persian Gulf had returned to pre-war levels and even exceeded them.
According to the company's data, total crude oil, condensates, and fuels exports last month averaged 17.1 million barrels per day, down from 18.9 million barrels per day in September.
According to analyst Phillip Nova, Priyanka Sachdeva, "The contradictory signals from President Trump, with ongoing military attacks alongside statements to reduce tensions, have made it difficult for traders to make strong judgments about market trends." The ING commodities team also added in a note on Tuesday: "The market still carries a high premium risk, especially considering the strong oil flows from the Persian Gulf." They also noted that despite recent positive signals from the United States and Iran, it is still too early to be optimistic about the end of the war.
Read more: Global diesel shortage will continue until 2027 · Slight increase in Brent crude oil price to $104.80
