Research from UCL Energy Institute indicates that nuclear ships can only compete in container transport if effective global policies for carbon emission reduction are in place. This study is one of the most accurate assessments of the total cost of ownership for commercial nuclear ships to date.
Cost and Policy Comparison
The report "Nuclear Reactors for Commercial Transport: Total Cost of Ownership Assessment of a Low Carbon Pathway" examines a large container ship (with a capacity of 14,500 to 19,999 TEU) powered by nuclear energy compared to conventional oil-fueled ships and ammonia dual-fuel ships. This research includes a literature review, interviews with five UK-based experts in law, insurance, classification, technology development, and industry representation, and a cost model implemented with and without the IMO net zero framework.
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Results and Challenges
The results show that without a net zero framework, no nuclear ship is cheaper than a conventional ship in terms of cost, even at the lowest hypothetical reactor costs. Under the NZF framework, nuclear ships earn revenue by selling excess units to other ships, which bridges the cost gap.
Reactor costs also impact the results. Published estimates vary from about $2,600 to $12,400 per kWe. In the lowest scenario, which assumes mass production and deep cost reductions, nuclear energy will be the cheapest option by 2040. In the highest scenario, this option is not the cheapest in any scenario.
Ultimately, non-technical challenges are as significant as technical challenges. Existing nuclear liability conventions are designed for fixed and land-based reactors, and no global framework for initial ships is expected to exist. Additionally, a mature insurance regime may take 15 to 20 years to develop.
According to Farah Bejikar, a researcher at UCL's Transport and Oceans Research Group, "Nuclear forces can compete, but only with much cheaper reactors and global emission policies, which do not yet exist."
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