The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently analyzed the economic situation of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and predicted that Kuwait's economy will face a 16.7% decrease in 2026. Additionally, Iraq's economy is expected to experience a 16% decline. These reductions are attributed to the consequences of war and insecurity in the region.
Negative Impacts on the Economies of Wealthy Countries
The report clearly shows the negative impacts of war on the economies of the wealthy Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Qatar, one of the largest exporters of liquefied natural gas in the world, is also predicted to face a 15.6% decrease in production. Meanwhile, Bahrain will experience an 11.3% decline, and the UAE and Saudi Arabia will face negative growth rates of 3.9% and 3.3%, respectively. Even Iran's economy is not immune to this damage, with a predicted contraction of 7.6%.
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The Link Between Security and Economy
These events highlight the deep connection between security and the economy in the region. Past experiences have shown that sustainable security is essential for continued economic prosperity. Moreover, ignoring Iran's geographical position in the Persian Gulf could incur heavy costs for neighboring countries. When peace in the region is threatened, shipping companies demand higher costs to navigate unsafe maritime routes, and insurers raise premiums.
In this context, the Strait of Hormuz, as a crucial route for the transfer of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf to global markets, plays a decisive role in this situation. Disruption in this waterway could create a chain of economic problems throughout the region. The International Monetary Fund has identified the prolonged restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz as a key factor in the reduction of production and exports from the region's countries.
Ultimately, this report clearly indicates that a war aimed at weakening Iran could have widespread consequences for the economies of wealthy Gulf Cooperation Council countries. While many of these countries have invested in their economic development over the past two decades, the war has revealed the vulnerabilities of these achievements.
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