On October 20, 2026, iron ore and steel prices in the Chinese market significantly decreased. This decline reflects the vulnerability of the price recovery trend observed in recent weeks. The price of iron ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) fell by 0.15% to 681.5 yuan per ton. Additionally, the indices of 61%, 58%, and 65% at the ports recorded 660, 616, and 819 yuan per ton respectively, each showing a decrease of 1 yuan.
Trade and Immediate Needs
Overall, trading activity in the market was reasonable, but factories continued to stockpile raw materials for their immediate needs. This situation prevented the price recovery trend from receiving adequate support in transactions. Supply conditions and costs continue to alleviate some pressure. New iron ore imports to China have decreased, and some Tangshan concentrates are facing shortages. However, import margins have improved during this period.
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Existing Challenges and Future Outlook
Nevertheless, lower import flows are not quickly absorbing port inventories, and profitability in import trade cannot replace steel production margins. Contradictory movements in C3 and C5 shipping costs also indicate that cost improvements are not uniform among various sources. The key question in the short term is whether purchases will exceed immediate needs and transition into sustainable stockpiling.
A limited improvement in end-user orders and final steel margins could lead to inventory constraints and upward pressure. If transactions and factory production strengthen, a firmer foundation for price improvement will be established. Ultimately, a range-bound approach seems suitable for the market, as attention should focus on how to develop transactions, collection, and profitability simultaneously, rather than just on price movement in a specific session.
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