Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan have focused on developing their economies and foreign policies after gaining independence from the Soviet Union, but they remain heavily dependent on the Kremlin for energy security.
Energy Supply Challenges
This crisis began in the spring and summer when Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries achieved greater success. On July 6, for the first time, drones reached the Omsk refinery, the largest oil refining facility in Russia, located 2,700 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, forcing the refinery to halt production.
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Omsk, the eleventh largest gasoline producer that was attacked, was the main supplier of petroleum products to Central Asia and Mongolia. However, Moscow prioritized fuel supply for its own regions, causing disruptions in energy supply for these countries.
Dependency on Oil Imports
Mongolia, which has any dependency on Russian oil, is the most vulnerable country, with over 90 percent of its petroleum products coming from Russia. In the capital, Ulaanbaatar, long lines formed at gas stations, and serious restrictions were imposed on fuel sales.
Kyrgyzstan, according to President Sadyr Japarov, is completely dependent on Russian gasoline and has expedited the development of a new refinery with an annual capacity of 450,000 tons. This refinery can initially meet a quarter of the country's needs, and Japarov stated that at least two more refineries are needed to supply domestic gasoline.
In July, Russia halved gas deliveries to Tajikistan, and jet fuel supply was completely halted. Dushanbe sought to compensate for this shortfall from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan but faced limited success.
Uzbekistan has been less affected than its neighbors due to its domestic refining capacity, but it still sources nearly half of its gasoline from Russia. Kazakhstan, with three active refineries, meets almost all of its domestic needs and has thus suffered the least damage.
This crisis has revealed structural vulnerabilities that are more significant than the immediate challenges of supply. All these countries are landlocked, and alternative supply routes must pass through neighboring countries.
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