Iraq's oil exports to India reached 4.41 million tons in September 2023, marking a 106.3% increase compared to the previous month and a 13.7% increase compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, Russia's crude oil exports to India decreased by 32.3% to 5.48 million tons.
Impact on Oil Transportation Market
In the transportation market, recent assessments indicate that all seven Aframax routes in this sector have experienced increases of 28 to 73%, while Suezmax revenues in the Atlantic have also risen by 32 to 38%. These developments reflect the growing demand for Iraqi oil and the rising transportation costs in the global market.
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India's Increased Responsibilities in Oil Supply
From March to July, Iraq's oil exports to India had dwindled, dropping to 5,000 tons in April and 42,000 tons in June. However, the total for September 2023 reached 4.41 million tons, which is higher than the average of 4.38 million tons in January and February. Additionally, Indian companies including Indian Oil Corporation, Reliance, Bharat Petroleum, and HPCL-Mittal Energy have purchased Iraqi oil on FOB terms and have arranged for tankers to load from the Persian Gulf.
In the past, Indian refiners avoided arranging their oil tanker journeys through Hormuz and relied on Gulf producers and international energy companies. However, now, by purchasing oil on an FOB basis, they take on the responsibility of arranging tanker journeys and subsequent transportation, which directly affects travel costs and the availability of tankers.
Return of Oil Exports in Yanbu
In Yanbu, oil loading was halted after Saudi Arabia shut down the East-West pipeline due to drone attacks, but this pipeline was restarted on September 22. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman announced on October 6 that pipeline flows have reached 5.8 million barrels per day, indicating a return to normal conditions compared to the capacity of 7 million barrels per day.
However, statistics show that the average monthly marine exports from Yanbu from April to July were around 4.19 to 4.65 million barrels per day, which dropped to 1.72 million barrels per day in September, indicating a need for further improvement in this area.
OPEC+ Decisions and Their Impact on Production
The OPEC+ decision to maintain production targets at September levels is in focus, with participating countries including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman emphasizing this on October 4. According to statistics, the combined production of these countries in August reached about 25 million barrels per day, reflecting an increase of 630,000 barrels compared to July, but still about 5 million barrels per day less than pre-war levels in February.
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