The performance of Brazil's iron ore corridors in the third quarter of 2026 has been impacted by unusual rainfall caused by El Niño. Heavy rainfall is expected in the southern and southwestern regions of the Minas Gerais-Tubarão corridor, while rainfall in the northern Carajás-Ponta da Madeira corridor will decrease.
Loading Developments in Brazil
A shift in Brazil's loading pattern towards the south is observed, particularly in the Tubarão corridor. This corridor recorded 127 trips to China from January to August, which is 15 percent more than in 2025 and 41 percent more than in 2024. In contrast, trips from Ponta da Madeira to China decreased by 9 percent to 234 trips. Overall, Brazil's trips to China decreased by 3 percent to 759 trips, but this figure is still 1 percent higher than in 2024.
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Impacts of El Niño and Weather Rainfall
According to rainfall forecasts from September to November 2026, heavier rainfall is expected in the southern regions of the Minas Gerais-Tubarão corridor. While this corridor is affected by heavy rainfall, the Carajás-Ponta da Madeira corridor will experience less rainfall. Loadings in the northern corridor are inversely related to rainfall, with loadings decreasing during the rainy season and increasing with reduced rainfall in the mid-year.
In 2026, the rainy season was accompanied by less rainfall compared to previous years. Maximum rainfall reached about 167 millimeters in 15 days, the lowest amount from 2022 to 2026. However, loadings also decreased this year, averaging 437 thousand tons per day, indicating a significant decline compared to previous years.
Capsize Order Trends vs. C3
Analyses indicate that the number of capsize orders significantly increased in the second quarter of 2026. In 2024, 103 capsize orders were recorded, which rose to 115 in 2025 and reached 123 in the first eight months of 2026. This trend represents the strongest period since 2018. Additionally, the share of ships built in China increased from 66 percent in 2024 to 95 percent in 2026.
Vale's performance in the second quarter of 2026 also indicates a strong foundation for the second half of the year. The company's iron ore production reached 84.3 million tons, marking the best performance in the second quarter since 2018. Annual forecasts remain in the range of 335 to 345 million tons.
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