China's thermal coal imports are projected to reach 295 million tons (Mt) in 2026. This figure is influenced by the need for storage for the winter season and market conditions for coal. As of October 30, 2026, the volume of thermal coal imported to China has remained almost unchanged from the previous year, but an increase in the average transportation distance has led to a 1.52 percent increase in estimated cargo volume.
Import forecasts and seasonal impacts
According to Signal Ocean estimates, total coal imports to China as of October 30 have been 236.05 million tons. Of this, October alone accounted for 24.72 million tons, which means 0.844 million tons per day. Forecasts indicate that if this trend continues, annual imports will reach 288.95 million tons.
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Considering seasonal reviews and changes in import timing, new forecasts have been revised to 295.75 million tons. This reflects seasonal fluctuations and the need for coal purchases along China's coasts. Estimates suggest that if coastal purchases increase, this amount may rise.
Impact of new units and market conditions
A new coal-fired power plant unit in Chaozhou with a capacity of 1 gigawatt was connected to the grid on October 25, which could significantly impact the need for coal imports. If this unit continues at the import rate of October, the projected decrease of 1.02 million tons will be eliminated. Estimates indicate that if such a trend continues, national inputs will reach around 290 million tons.
On October 13, Datang issued a request to purchase a shipment of 70,000 tons (±10%) of imported coal for delivery to Chaozhou between November 28 and December 10. This situation indicates high demand for coal in the country.
The National Energy Administration of China (NEA) announced on October 30 that key regions and companies have been advised to increase coal imports, especially as domestic production is recovering. In September, raw coal production in major industries decreased by 6.8 percent compared to the previous year.
Ultimately, given the high demand and seasonal conditions, it is expected that China's thermal coal imports will reach 295 million tons in 2026. This forecast depends on various factors such as domestic reserves, market conditions, and the need for imports.
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