Oil prices reached their highest level in nearly two weeks on Monday morning. This price increase is due to new attacks on Saudi Arabia and tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, which have brought supply risks in the Middle East back into focus for the market. In this context, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to $93.78 per barrel, an increase of $1.93 or 2.10 percent, while Brent oil reached $106.80, an increase of $2.09 or 2.00 percent.
Attacks on Saudi Arabia and Tankers
This price increase followed recent attacks on Saudi Arabia, including a Houthi attack on Riyadh International Airport on Saturday that resulted in 13 deaths and over 300 injuries. Additionally, on Sunday, reports emerged of an attack on two tankers near Oman and in the Strait of Hormuz. These attacks pose a threat to the recovery of Gulf oil exports, which reached 81 percent of pre-war levels in September.
Read more: Two more tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz
OPEC Forecasts and Global Economy
Crude oil and gas condensate exports have returned to 91 percent of pre-war levels, but petroleum product exports remain at only 60 percent. In this context, Goldman Sachs raised its Brent oil price forecast for December from $85 to $90 per barrel and estimated that geopolitical risks have currently added more than $20 to oil prices. Meanwhile, OPEC has significantly lowered its expectations for global oil demand growth this year.
According to Haitham Al-Ghais, OPEC's Secretary General, the group now expects demand to grow by only 400,000 barrels per day in 2026, a significant reduction from the 1.4 million barrels per day forecast at the beginning of the year. OPEC also predicted that a large portion of the deferred demand due to disruptions this year will return in 2027. In September, the group had reduced its growth forecast for 2026 to 380,000 barrels per day, meaning the new figures indicate a slight increase but still a reduction of 1 million barrels compared to the initial forecasts for the year.
The International Energy Agency also predicts that demand will face further declines this year, expecting global consumption to decrease by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, but then improve in 2027 with an increase of 2.6 million barrels.
Meanwhile, recent announcements by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the supply of 300,000 tons or about 2.25 million barrels of diesel from Russia to global markets may exert downward pressure on fuel prices. Additionally, Moscow has partially lifted restrictions on diesel exports, adding another 500,000 tons to the global market. Given these developments, deeper impacts on the oil and petrochemical markets are expected in the near future.
Read more: The IRGC destroyed the third super tanker violating regulations in the Strait of Hormuz · The International Energy Agency began releasing another 100 million barrels from oil reserves
