The increase in attacks on tankers in the Gulf of Oman and the Black Sea has raised new concerns in the maritime transport industry. According to published information, these attacks began simultaneously with the failure of negotiations following the United Nations General Assembly meeting in late September, and it seems that Iran has intensified these attacks in the absence of any progress on the diplomatic front.
Impacts on Tanker Supply
Given the rise in these attacks, the supply of tankers may come under more pressure. While several tankers were sunk or rendered unusable in early September, the United States has not yet publicly responded to these attacks. Meanwhile, with the upcoming political changes in the November midterm elections, this situation may change. There is a possibility that with the increase in attacks, insurance rates and transportation costs will also rise, as tanker owners reassess the existing risks.
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Challenges in Tracking Attacks
According to experts, tracking the impacts of attacks on tanker supply is difficult. Many attacks are not accurately reported, and the AIS being turned off in this region makes it challenging to monitor the status of tankers after attacks. While evidence suggests that many tankers are quickly repaired and returned to service, the average waiting time for reloading after an attack is nearly two months. In the meantime, some tankers required more extensive repairs in dry dock.
Additionally, the Black Sea has also witnessed frequent attacks on Suezmax and Aframax tankers during the summer. While the severity of the damages has varied, on average, these tankers have also spent nearly two months before reloading and have spent an average of 25 days in repair shops. Although attacks on loaded tankers in the CPC have decreased following an agreement between the United States and Ukraine, tankers carrying Russian oil still face significant risks.
Ultimately, as long as tensions continue, tankers will remain at risk. The increased dangers in the Middle East could lead to maintaining transportation rates at high levels, and the costs of oil delivery may also continue to rise due to increased insurance costs and logistical challenges.
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