Changes in dry cargo and oil transportation markets in 2026 are influenced by new policies from China and India, as well as supply and loading issues in various parts of the world. These developments are particularly shaped by changes in export regulations and the risks associated with loading schedules due to refinery breakdowns and fires at the Petersburg terminal.
Soybean Imports and Their Impact on Transportation
China's soybean purchases have bolstered the future cargo book of the United States. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), on October 16, 558,000 tons of soybeans were sold to China, following a sale of 330,000 tons on October 15. Sales to China from October 14 to 16 reached 1.36 million tons for the 2026/27 marketing year. Additionally, 236,000 tons of soybeans were exported to unknown destinations and 127,000 tons of corn to Japan. These commitments positively impact U.S. grain export plans, although their share in hiring Panamax and Kamsarmax vessels depends on loading dates and ports.
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Impact of Coal Policies in Asia
China is balancing stricter oversight of mine safety with efforts to maintain domestic coal supply ahead of the heating season. Raw coal production in September decreased by 6.8% compared to last year, reaching 385 million tons. This decline is attributed to stringent safety inspections following an incident in May in Shanxi and a fatal accident in Henan in August. On October 16, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration of China urged Shanxi province to restart halted mines and increase production before winter.
India is also prioritizing domestic coal production and its rail distribution to power plants. The Ministry of Coal of India has announced that the average daily supply to the power sector increased from 2.2 million tons in September to 2.5 million tons during the period from October 1 to 10. Meanwhile, rail loading increased from 426 to 469 wagons per day.
Challenges in Iron Ore and Grain Exports
The Saldanha iron ore terminal in South Africa is preparing to complete its 16-day maintenance program. This terminal handles over 50 million tons of iron ore annually, and returning to loading operations and scheduling export cargoes after this shutdown is of high importance. Transnet's long-term investments in rail and terminal infrastructure will help improve the reliability of South Africa's iron ore export corridor.
In the grain sector, the October USDA forecasts indicate a decrease in global wheat trade and an increased outlook for U.S. corn exports for the 2026/27 year. The reduction in wheat export availability from Russia and the United States, compensated by Argentina and Canada, places greater importance on the sourcing locations for importers.
Additionally, maritime security in the Black Sea was severely impacted in mid-October due to increased attacks on shipping and damage to vessels. These developments have heightened the need for alternative export corridors.
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