The gradual return of capacity in international shipping, especially following trip cancellations, has initiated a new phase in the market after the Golden Week festival. This analysis shows that shipping capacity is slowly returning, but pressure on prices continues irregularly on main routes.
Details of Capacity and Trip Cancellations
The global container index reached $4,351 per 40-foot container on October 8, reflecting a 2% decrease compared to the previous week. This decline in rates has been particularly observed on trans-Pacific, Asia-Europe/Mediterranean, and trans-Atlantic routes. The main pressure remains on the Asia-Europe/Mediterranean route, where the gradual return of services through the Suez Canal has added effective capacity to the market.
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Analysis of Trip Cancellations
In weeks 42 to 46 (from November 12 to 15), 34 trips are expected to be canceled out of a total of 713 scheduled trips, indicating a cancellation rate of 5%. Additionally, 95% of the scheduled trips will be carried out as planned. These disruptions are primarily concentrated on the Asia-North Europe/Mediterranean route, which accounts for about 50% of the cancellations, followed by the trans-Pacific route to the east with 32% and the trans-Atlantic route with 18%.
With the increase in effective capacity and the decrease in the number of cancellations, supply pressure may gradually lessen, although traffic and network adjustments may still limit capacity and keep rates high on certain routes.
In the next edition of the container capacity analysis, we will continue to track changes in trip cancellation schedules, effective capacity, Suez routings, and global port traffic, as operations post-Golden Week festival gradually stabilize.
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