As one of the largest coal consumers in the world, China is expected to increase its thermal coal imports to between 270 and 290 million tons by 2026. With 187.2 million tons recorded from January to August, this means that China's imports from September to December will average between 21 and 26 million tons per month, which is a decrease compared to 25.3 million tons from July to August.
Decline in thermal power generation and improvement in mining production
The decline in China's thermal power generation by 4.3 percent in August and 3.5 percent in July, along with an increase in daily raw coal production to 11.67 million tons in August from 11.07 million tons in July, has created a complex situation for the need for coal imports. Despite the improvement in mining production, the need for thermal coal imports remains due to existing domestic supply constraints and competition with foreign shipments.
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Indonesia's share in China's coal imports
From January to August, Indonesia supplied 115.1 million tons, equivalent to 61.5 percent of China's total thermal coal imports. Indonesia's share in Panamax trade has been 68.5 percent, which is higher than Australia's 17.7 percent. This indicates that Indonesia's loading plans for this segment of trade are more significant than the total imports.
In this context, Indonesia's exports are expected to reach 164.5 million tons from September to December, while 296 million tons have been shipped so far this year. Based on this data, China's imports are expected to be 287.2 million tons for the year.
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