Brent oil experienced severe fluctuations in the week ending Friday, November 6, 2026, and returned once again to the 100 dollar mark. These fluctuations occurred while prices failed to recover all previous declines.
Factors Influencing Brent Oil Prices
The most significant factor supporting prices is concern over the security of oil transportation routes in the Persian Gulf, particularly the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections and increased hopes for a reduction in conflicts with Iran have strengthened expectations for improved oil supply, exerting downward pressure on the market.
In Friday's trading, Brent oil initially crossed the 100 dollar mark, and according to reports, Brent futures rose by 1.76% to 100.08 dollars per barrel. Additionally, West Texas Intermediate crude oil also traded at around 91.72 dollars with a 1.33% increase.
Price Volatility in the Global Market
However, prices fluctuated throughout the day, and according to reports received by 1:46 PM GMT, Brent oil was up 0.3% at 98.55 dollars, while WTI increased by 0.6% to around 91.09 dollars. Thus, Brent oil's crossing of the 100 dollar mark was recorded in Friday's trading, but its price fell below this mark in subsequent reports.
The World Bank, in its latest assessment of the commodities market, has announced that the average price of Brent oil in the fourth quarter of 2026 will be close to 100 dollars per barrel. This institution also forecasts the average Brent price for the entire year of 2026 to be around 91 dollars.
Future Predictions and Existing Risks
According to the World Bank's baseline scenario, with a gradual return of supply and the market entering a surplus situation, the average price of Brent oil could decrease to 79 dollars in 2027 and to 70 dollars in 2028. However, this prediction depends on a sustainable improvement in Middle Eastern oil exports, the return of regional refinery activities to pre-conflict levels, and an increase in Russian oil production.
The World Bank has also warned about upside risks. The resumption of conflicts, attacks on regional pipelines, and disruptions in maritime routes could exacerbate supply shortages. In the institution's unfavorable scenario, if Gulf production decreases by about 5 million barrels per day in the first half of 2027 and Russian exports remain limited, the average Brent price next year could reach 105 dollars.
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