On Wednesday (November 4), the price of North Sea Brent crude oil rose by 82 cents or 0.8% to $104.42 per barrel. This price increase occurred due to investors' doubts about developments in the Middle East, particularly the recent military conflicts.
Market Analysis and Influencing Factors
The U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude also traded up by 50 cents or 0.5% to $96.59 per barrel. The price of Brent oil had fallen to its lowest level in about four weeks during yesterday's trading (November 3), due to assessments of negotiations to end tensions in the Middle East and the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war on the global oil market.
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Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market outlook at "Phillip Nova," analyzed the current situation and stated: "Conflicting signals from Donald Trump, the President of the United States, regarding Middle Eastern conflicts have made it difficult for traders to predict a clear direction for the market with full confidence." She also mentioned the rationality of some selling for profit-taking and reducing long positions.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Status
According to data from the American Petroleum Institute, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 5.27 million barrels in the week ending October 30 (November 8). Eight analysts participating in a Reuters survey had predicted that U.S. crude oil inventories would increase by about 880,000 barrels, and this discrepancy in forecasts could impact price volatility.
Additionally, U.S. gasoline inventories are expected to grow by 1.43 million barrels, while distillate inventories have decreased by 1.19 million barrels compared to the previous week. Furthermore, "Haitong Futures" reported that diesel inventories are at a low level, while gasoline inventories have increased more than expected.
Overall, this data generally supports rising oil prices and indicates an imbalance in supply and demand in the global oil market. Fundamental risks related to supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz remain a significant concern and affect price volatility.
