Wood Mackenzie's new report examines the scenarios for domestic gas production in the European Union until 2050 and shows that without investment in new fields, the EU will reach a dependence of over 98% on gas imports.
Various Gas Production Scenarios
This report models three scenarios for gas production in EU member states. In the low scenario, without new investment, gas production will decrease from 43 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2028 to just 2 bcm in 2050. In the middle scenario, by maintaining the current level of investment, production will remain close to 40 bcm until 2038, covering only 17% of demand.
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However, the high scenario is the only one that can significantly change the EU's position. In this scenario, with financial conditions stabilizing and acceleration in permits, production will reach 77 bcm by 2042, covering 38% of demand. In this case, cumulative production will reach 1,400 bcm, equivalent to replacing 615 LNG shipments per year.
The Importance of Exploration and the Global Market
Exploration plays a key role in these scenarios. Of the 680 bcm gap between the low and high scenarios, 70% is related to exploration. The Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean have the highest exploration potential. Particularly, Greece accounts for one-third of this exploitable volume and is planning to drill its first deep exploration well in 2027.
Ultimately, the report notes that while the EU's financial conditions appear generally attractive, instability and diversity in policies pose significant challenges for attracting investment. Especially as Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea countries seek to attract explorers, other countries like Denmark and France are closing off to new permits.
As a result, Europe's domestic gas cannot bring the continent to self-sufficiency, but creating stable financial conditions and success in exploration could significantly reduce dependence on LNG.
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