Ukrainian drone strikes on three of Russia's six largest diesel refineries have severely impacted the production capacity of these facilities. The Kirishi, Volgograd, and Nuri refineries are operating either completely offline or at very low capacity. These refineries are recognized as key pillars of Russia's fuel system, supplying about half of the country's diesel production.
Current Status of Refineries
The Kirishi refinery has been completely shut down, and both the Volgograd and Nuri refineries are operating at only 25% of their nominal capacity. Additionally, the Tanko refinery, which was attacked on Sunday, has not yet undergone a complete assessment of the damage incurred. The impact of these strikes on Russia's diesel production is so significant that it is anticipated that more serious fuel supply issues will arise in the near future.
Decline in Exports and Related Crises
In addition to the problems caused by drone strikes, Russia has limited the export of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to maintain its domestic supply. According to estimates, diesel exports in June fell to less than one million tons. Russia's diesel and gasoil production averaged 2.5 million tons per month last year, which has now decreased to 1.8 million tons. This decline comes at a time when Turkey and Brazil previously purchased half of Russia's diesel shipments.
Currently, the global diesel market is facing a fuel shortage, and this reduction in exports from Russia has impacted prices. Diesel prices in the United States surpassed $6 per gallon for the first time last week, and refining margins have increased due to reduced product inventories.
The problems at the refineries are just part of the current crises in Russia's oil industry. The International Energy Agency has revised its forecast for Russian crude oil production in 2026 down to 8.7 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, production in August fell to 8.36 million barrels per day, indicating a decrease of 940,000 barrels compared to January.
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