Tradlinx's analysis, a supply chain data platform based in South Korea, shows that in the past year, out of over 500,000 maritime container shipments, 8.43% of carrier ETAs (Estimated Time of Arrival) have been empty. This data indicates that carriers have left the estimated arrival time empty in 42,832 cases, most of which occurred while shipments were waiting at transshipment ports.
A Major Portion of Problems at Transshipment Ports
According to the analysis, nearly three-quarters of these problems occur at transshipment ports. Specifically, the ETA for the median transshipment port has been empty in 30,929 cases (6.09%), and the ETA for the final destination of transshipment shipments has been empty in 6,168 cases (1.21%), while the ETA for direct shipments has been empty in 5,735 cases (1.13%). The total transshipment shipments account for 87% of all problems.
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Estimated Arrival Time Errors
According to this analysis, carrier ETAs have, on average, been 15.4 hours away from the actual arrival time. Additionally, 5% of shipments have had an error of 48 hours or more in the estimated arrival time. In this group, which includes 25,341 shipments (4.99%), the average ETA error for carriers has been 90.0 hours.
Tradlinx emphasizes that most discussions in the industry relate to the accuracy of carrier ETAs. However, our data points to a more fundamental gap: for nearly one-twelfth of shipments, the ETA completely disappears along the way. These failures occur more frequently at transshipment ports, where planners need greater visibility. This issue leads to problems in customer updates and transport planning.
The findings also suggest that these gaps can be bridged with forecasting, rather than waiting for carrier updates. Tradlinx was able to compare estimates from its AI-based ETA prediction model (AI-ETA) with carrier ETAs using similar shipments for validation. The model provided an estimate when carrier ETAs were empty, and its average error was 31.4% less than that of carrier ETAs, with an error of 10.6 hours compared to 15.4 hours. The difference between the two models was greater in cases where ETAs were significantly incorrect.
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