TotalEnergies has predicted that oil demand will peak between 2035 and 2040, whereas a year earlier, the company had forecasted that demand would continue until 2040. In its annual report released on Monday, the company stated that demand for oil products will stabilize in the 2030s and then gradually decline.
Impact of Electric Vehicle Sales
Aurélien Hamelle, TotalEnergies' sustainability officer, told reporters that if electric vehicle (EV) sales continue to grow, demand could decline more rapidly. Based on previous forecasts, in November 2025, TotalEnergies expected oil demand to increase by nearly 5% and reach 108 million barrels per day by 2040, before decreasing to 98 million barrels per day by 2050.
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Factors Influencing the New Forecast
The company pointed to factors such as a slight reduction in U.S. green subsidies, approval of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, construction of coal plants in Asia, and a decline in electric vehicle sales. Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of TotalEnergies, stated at the time that the chances of achieving a scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement had "diminished and is even out of reach." A year earlier, the company expected demand to peak after 2030.
The 2026 report states that the energy crisis resulting from the U.S.-Israel war with Iran could act as a "catalyst" in the energy transition. It also noted the sharp increase in electric vehicle sales in Asia, Latin America, and Europe, as well as rising biodiesel blending requirements. Hamelle spoke of a "remarkable" acceleration in low-carbon technologies between the second quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast that by 2026, there will be about 23 million electric vehicle sales globally, accounting for nearly 30% of new cars. In the first quarter, electric vehicle sales in Europe increased by approximately 30%, in Asia-Pacific excluding China by 80%, and in Latin America by 75%. For the first time, gasoline vehicle sales accounted for less than half of global new car sales in the first half of the year, dropping to 49%.
The war that began on February 28 and restricted tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has also benefited TotalEnergies. The company's adjusted net income more than doubled in the third quarter, reaching $9.1 billion, while its downstream revenue hit a record $4.1 billion, with refining margins reaching their highest historical levels.
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