Oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz have returned to about 80% of pre-war levels. According to data from Kpler, at least 30 vessels have passed through this waterway daily in October.
U.S. Protective Operations in the Strait of Hormuz
This increase has occurred as the U.S. military has established extensive protective coverage for passing vessels using fighter jets, warships, and defense systems. However, many private shipping companies still refrain from sending their tankers to this region.
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Security Challenges and Their Impact on the Global Energy Market
Despite a significant increase in tanker traffic, security threats continue to prevent a full return of commercial activity to this route. A report from the Washington Post states that U.S. protective operations have largely prevented the halt of oil exports from the Persian Gulf, but sustainable security has yet to be achieved. A significant portion of the vessels passing through the strait under U.S. military cover are government-owned, and the traffic of liquefied natural gas carriers remains limited.
The main concern for shipping companies is that even with an increase in the number of passing tankers, the risk of missile, drone attacks, and mining remains. The impact of this insecurity on the global energy market is also evident. According to Reuters, the price of Brent oil has risen to about $117 per barrel, and the oil market is on track to record its fourth consecutive month of price growth.
The increase in maritime attacks has occurred amid speculation about the resumption of large-scale U.S. military operations against Iran following the midterm elections on November 3. Meanwhile, Qatari mediators have returned to Tehran for discussions on ending the war. Despite these diplomatic movements, there are still no clear signs of an agreement between the two sides to end the conflicts.
Currently, although U.S. military operations have managed to revive a significant portion of oil exports, the security of vessel passage remains fragile. For energy-exporting and importing countries, the main issue is no longer just the number of passing tankers; rather, it is the assurance that this vital route can be used without the risk of attack and without the need for extensive military protection.
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