The growth of the dry bulk fleet in recent years, especially in the Handysize segment, requires special attention. According to the Xclusiv report, the annual growth of the fleet in 2024 and 2025 has been close to 3 percent, with a mild acceleration expected in 2026.
Uneven Distribution of Fleet Growth
The main feature of this growth is not only its speed but also its uneven distribution. The Handysize capacity has significantly increased compared to other segments since the end of 2023, while the growth of supply in the Capesize and Newcastlemax segments has been considerably slower. Additionally, the future order book has tilted towards larger segments, indicating that the composition of fleet growth in the next two years may be very different from what the market has recently experienced.
Read more: Masoud Pezeshkian at the Summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States Leaders in Turkmenistan
Existing Challenges in Recycling and Fleet Capacity
So far, a lack of attention to recycling has allowed most new deliveries to effectively convert into fleet growth. In 2024, approximately 33.3 million tons DWT will be added to the fleet, with only 3.8 million tons DWT recycled. In 2025, this number will rise to 35.9 million tons DWT delivered and 5.3 million tons DWT recycled.
In 2026, about 32.9 million tons DWT have been added to the fleet so far, with only 2.8 million tons DWT removed. This recycling shortfall has kept net additions close to 30 million tons DWT per year. However, the future outlook is more challenging. The order book for dry bulk carriers has increased from about 8 percent of the fleet at the end of 2023 to nearly 15 percent currently.
The total planned deliveries for 2027 alone will be around 52.1 million tons DWT, equivalent to about 4.9 percent of the current fleet. These figures indicate increased pressure on supply. However, it should be noted that gross deliveries should not be considered equivalent to effective net fleet growth.
About 12.8 percent of the existing dry bulk fleet, based on the number of vessels, is over 20 years old, and this ratio is even higher in several small and medium segments. This creates significant recycling potential and indicates that part of the incoming capacity may ultimately replace older vessels instead of adding to effective supply.
Fundamental demand factors remain supportive, but they are not strong enough to completely eliminate the supply question. It is expected that dry bulk maritime trade will generally increase by approximately 1.7 percent in 2027, while iron ore will grow at a similar pace.
Read more: The Important Role of the Bahamas Maritime Authority in Implementing International Maritime Requirements · The Baltic Dry Index Drops to Its Lowest Level in Four Weeks
