The battle between the Houthis and Saudi forces continues fiercely in the heights of Yemen, and it seems that these clashes will affect control over key areas that dominate one of the world's critical shipping points, the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Geographical Importance of the Battles
The advances made by the Houthis, who are backed by Iran, have posed challenges to the future of oil supply from the world's largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia. These battles are concentrated in a mountainous region near the shores of the Red Sea. Achieving military victory in this area could give the Houthis greater power to control the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a narrow waterway that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
Read more: The Presence of Iran-Backed Houthis on the Strategic Island of Perim
Impact on Saudi Oil Supply
Saudi Arabia is heavily reliant on transit routes through the Bab al-Mandab Strait to send oil to global markets. This dependency has increased, especially since Iran effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year. Key infrastructure in Saudi Arabia has also been targeted, including an east-west pipeline that crosses the country. Over the weekend, the Houthis also reported attacks on the Saudi capital, Riyadh.
Despite requests for military assistance from Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, the United States has so far provided no help. According to reports, former U.S. President Donald Trump was on the verge of issuing orders for airstrikes against the Houthis, but canceled the decision at the last moment.
Analysts at Vital Knowledge noted that U.S. military forces "are currently under significant pressure" and are trying to move ships through the Strait of Hormuz and defend existing military facilities in the Gulf. The Pentagon "does not appear to have the willingness or capability for further actions, despite the escalation of conflicts," according to these analysts.
However, they believe that the situation is severe enough that "it could compel the main parties to some sort of agreement," and the upcoming United Nations General Assembly in New York this week may provide a venue for these discussions. Trump told a Fox News reporter on Sunday that he is ready to meet with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at this gathering.
Nevertheless, Washington and Tehran have exchanged new threatening statements in recent days, and their months-long war remains at a stalemate. Trump stated that if Iran does not attempt to sign an agreement, the leadership of Iran will be destroyed, while the Iranian military warned that it would respond to any new attacks.
Despite the likelihood of continued supply disruptions in the Middle East, oil prices fell on Monday. Hopes for diplomatic efforts to resolve this conflict, along with data from shipping analytics company Kpler, indicated that Saudi oil exports have returned to over 4 million barrels per day so far in September, up from 2.4 million barrels per day in August.
Saudi Arabia also hopes to soon resume oil flow through its damaged east-west pipeline, although analysts have expressed doubts about achieving this goal.
Read more: Houthis Reach the Strategic Port of Mocha in Yemen; A New Threat to Shipping! · Oil Prices Rise to $86.44 with High Physical Demand
