The average price of the OPEC oil basket in August 2026 increased by $3.45 compared to the previous month, reaching $86.44 per barrel. The price of Brent oil also rose by $4.11 to $88.08. Additionally, the average price of the WTI index reached $82.45, indicating an increase of $3.23.
Oil Price Growth and Influencing Factors
This month, Oman oil experienced the highest monthly growth, rising by $10.36 to an average of $87.88 per barrel. The price gap between the Brent and WTI indices reached $5.63. This price increase was not solely due to financial market activities, but also strong demand for cash cargoes, especially from Asian refineries, and concerns about supply and reduced access to crude oil were key factors in the short-term price increase of oil.
Read more: Brent crude oil price drops to $103.94 on the verge of a weekly decline
Global Oil Demand Forecast
The outlook for the global economy generally supports oil consumption; however, economic growth varies across different regions of the world. Estimates indicate that in 2026, the global economy will grow by about 3%, and in 2027 by about 3.2%. Additionally, global oil demand is expected to increase by about 400,000 barrels per day in 2026, while OECD countries will face a decrease of 100,000 barrels. However, non-OECD countries will experience an increase of about 500,000 barrels.
Global oil demand growth for 2027 is expected to reach about 2.4 million barrels per day, which is an increase from previous assessments. Of this amount, about 1.9 million barrels per day will be from non-OECD countries.
Production Growth of Non-OPEC+ Countries
On the supply side, the increase in production from countries outside the OPEC+ coalition is one of the significant factors that could prevent a sustainable deficit in the market. It is expected that production from non-OPEC+ countries will increase by about 600,000 barrels per day in 2026. The United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina are the main drivers of this growth.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ member countries' oil production in August increased by 300,000 barrels per day to 38.05 million barrels per day. Additionally, the production of natural gas liquids and unconventional oil from OPEC+ member countries is also expected to increase by 100,000 barrels per day in 2026.
Seven OPEC+ members decided in early August to reduce their voluntary supply by 188,000 barrels for September, which is part of the gradual return of production to the market. Thus, the market will face two opposing forces in the coming months: increasing global demand, especially in Asia, and rising supply from producers outside OPEC+.
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