The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) presented a report on the short-term and long-term effects of tensions in the West Asia region on gas markets during last week's executive committee meeting in Doha.
Short-term Impacts on the LNG Market
According to the report, the escalation of geopolitical tensions in West Asia in 2026 has confronted the global gas and LNG market with one of the significant energy security shocks in recent decades. In the short term, a decrease in LNG exports from key producers in the region, particularly Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, has led to a reduction in global LNG imports and increased competition among buyers, raising prices in the Asian and European markets.
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Long-term Developments and Future Outlook
The report emphasizes that regional developments disrupting LNG supply could extend their effects beyond regional markets and impact the supply-demand balance in the global gas market. In the long term, the continuation of the current crisis could lead to structural changes in gas markets and alter energy consumption patterns.
According to the GECF report, the persistence of these conditions could also increase the sensitivity of European and Asian benchmark markets to developments in the U.S. gas market. The report also highlights the necessity of considering the future supply and demand outlook in planning for new investments in the LNG sector, as the potential for a supply surplus in the early 2030s could influence investment decisions in this sector.
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) is an intergovernmental organization consisting of major natural gas producing and exporting countries, aimed at enhancing cooperation and coordination among members and increasing the role of natural gas in the global energy market. The main members of GECF collectively hold 70% of the world's proven natural gas reserves, 38% of commercial gas production, and 42% of global gas exports, with their share of LNG exports reaching about 47%.
Iran, as one of the founding members of GECF, with about 34 trillion cubic meters of proven gas reserves, is the second-largest holder of gas reserves in the world after Russia. Qatar, with approximately 23.8 trillion cubic meters of proven reserves, is the third-largest holder of gas reserves globally and holds a significant position in global LNG trade with exports of 107 billion cubic meters of LNG in 2024.
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