Soybean commitments from the United States to China for the 2026/27 marketing year reached 9.858 million tons as of September 10. This figure includes completed shipments and remaining sales. The remaining portion represents shipments that have not yet been loaded, and their loading schedules will impact the demand for vessels from the United States and China in the coming months.
Recent Purchases and Their Impact on the Market
Purchases reported on September 10 include about 1 million tons of soybeans, with Sinograin reserving shipments from U.S. export terminals in the Gulf of Mexico for loading to China between December 2026 and February 2027. Previous purchases, reported on August 3, included at least eight shipments from Gulf Coast terminals and six shipments from U.S. Pacific Northwest ports scheduled for loading in October and November to China. Thus, the fall registrations include both U.S. export regions, while subsequent purchases by Sinograin extend the U.S. loading schedule to China into the winter season.
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Challenges in the Soybean Market
Private producers in China have largely avoided U.S. shipments due to the additional 10% tariff and weak processing margins. Assessments made in early September indicate that U.S. soybeans for loading during the October to January period would be unprofitable even without the additional tariff. Under these circumstances, merely reducing the tariff does not provide sufficient incentive for private producers to book more shipments from the United States, limiting additional demand for cargoes beyond reported government purchases.
Freight Market Analysis
In the second week, the freight market experienced a divergence between large and small sizes. The BDI index has decreased to 3,370 points, reflecting a daily drop of 34 points and a weekly drop of 137 points. While this index has shown a decline for the second consecutive week, the last day of the week ended positively. The Panamax index, one of the largest sizes, fell by 156 points to 2,251, and the average P5TC freight rate decreased to $20,262 per day.
In larger sizes, Capesize also decreased, with the BCI index dropping by 312 points to 5,768. On the other hand, smaller sizes such as Supramax and Handysize have increased during this period, with Supramax rising to 1,767 points (+48 points for the week) and Handysize to 988 points (+48 points for the week).
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