Global coal trade in 2027 will face a severe decline due to continued reduced demand in China and other mature markets. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) report, demand for imported coal in China remains weak and is expected to drop to 310 million tons in 2026.
Coal Trade in 2026
In 2026, global coal trade temporarily improved due to increased demand in Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea, driven by high natural gas prices. However, forecasts indicate that this increase in demand will be temporary, and global coal trade will sharply decline in 2027. The IEA predicts that China's coal imports will decrease from 325 million tons in 2025 to 310 million tons in 2026.
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Impact of Domestic Policies in India and Growth in Southeast Asia
Coal imports in India will also gradually decline as the government seeks to replace imported coal with domestic production. In contrast, Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam, is experiencing significant growth, with imports expected to rise from 55 million tons to 62 million tons. Meanwhile, Australia, as a major player in the coal market, is likely to gain a larger market share due to reduced supply from Indonesia.
Despite new pressures on thermal coal, metallurgical coal appears to remain in a more stable condition. It is expected that metallurgical coal trade will remain generally stable in 2027, particularly due to strong steel production in India that could offset demand.
The IEA also noted the transfer of coal across land borders to China from Mongolia, predicting that Mongolia's coking coal exports to China will exceed 90 million tons in 2026. This shift in coal trade patterns could impact regional flows and reduce China's reliance on traditional maritime suppliers.
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