The flow of Middle Eastern crude oil has reached 17.5 million barrels per day, nearly returning to pre-war levels. This news has been confirmed in recent reports from JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, despite ongoing shipping risks in the eighth month of the U.S.-Iran conflict.
JP Morgan Analysis
JP Morgan analysts led by Natasha Kanova noted in their September 29 memo that the oil export arteries of the Middle East have been reactivated. They estimate that crude oil shipments have returned to a level of 17.5 million barrels per day, or 98 percent of pre-war levels. However, the flow of petroleum products has only reached 3 million barrels per day, equivalent to 58 percent of previous capacity.
Read more: Iran's Oil Decrease and Its Impact on the Global Market and China
Status of the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Exports
JP Morgan also emphasized that the transit flow through the Strait of Hormuz has reached about 13 million barrels per day, with a significant portion of this flow being directed by Saudi Arabia. However, analysts from this bank have warned that the increase in transit volume should not be mistaken for improved safety, as these numbers only reflect the industry's ability to operate under ongoing risks.
On the other hand, Goldman Sachs estimated last week that oil exports from the Gulf reached 23.3 million barrels per day, aligning with the average for 2025. Analysts from this group, including Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, believe that the global oil market was nearly balanced in September. They also noted the decrease in Iranian oil exports against the increase in output from other Gulf producers.
In this context, Saudi Arabia has managed to recover half of the capacity of its east-to-west pipeline after damage earlier this month. This pipeline serves as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz and provides service to the country's Red Sea ports. Saudi exports in September have more than doubled and exceeded the average for 2025.
Despite this increase in shipments, the global crude oil benchmark "Brent" is still on track for its third consecutive monthly increase with a rise of about 14 percent. In the latest trades, the price of futures contracts for November has increased by 0.8 percent to $103.43 per barrel.
Read more: Increase in Oil Prices as Oil Flows Approach Pre-War Levels · Donald Trump Emphasizes the Necessity of Iran's Surrender and Ending the War
