The progress of renewable energy in the Middle East was particularly highlighted at the Middle East Energy Trade Week conference in Dubai. Given the low costs of solar energy in this region, a new outlook for consumption and export of energy in low-carbon products has emerged.
Development of Renewable Energy Capacity
Sarwanan Maniol, the low-carbon fuels manager at ENGIE's energy management and sales group, announced that renewable energy is now competitive and is expected to account for about one-third of the energy mix in Gulf Cooperation Council countries by 2030. These developments will bring along new challenges and opportunities.
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Renewable power is considered a foundation for green ammonia production, while blue ammonia produced with natural gas requires carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar are planning to increase CCS capacity.
Energy Forecasts in the Middle East and North Africa
A recent report by DNV, titled "Energy Transition Outlook 2026: Increasing Renewables in the Gulf Region," predicts that 860 gigawatts of solar energy capacity will be installed by 2040. Additionally, between 2040 and 2060, another 2200 gigawatts of solar and wind energy will be installed. The report forecasts that by 2060, 92 percent of electricity generation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will be non-fossil, while this figure is only 14 percent in 2024.
This strong outlook depends on significant population and economic growth in the region, which creates intense energy needs for cooling, industry, and new data centers. However, MENA has not yet reached a point where non-fossil electricity generation growth outpaces electricity demand growth.
Growth of Energy Storage and Infrastructure
The growth of renewable energy is leading to the development of supportive infrastructure, as countries in the region seek to maximize the benefits of solar energy. The reduction in costs of energy storage systems (BESS) has contributed to this. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman are at the forefront in this area. With large-scale solar projects minimizing electricity costs, these countries are adding large energy storage capacities.
Fadi Malouf, an energy technology consultant based in Dubai, stated that the total capacity of energy storage projects in the region is expected to reach 166 gigawatt-hours by 2030, more than six times the current operational capacity. This growth is influenced by strategic plans such as Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, Oman's Vision 2040, and the UAE's net-zero initiative by 2050.
Given the rapid advancements in energy storage technology, it is expected that the volume of energy storage projects in the Middle East and North Africa will increase to 149 gigawatt-hours by 2030. Saudi Arabia, which has invested little in battery storage over the past five years, now holds most of the region's operational capacity.
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