Current soybean prices from the U.S. (US-origin soybeans) have managed to create seasonal opportunities for increased soybean purchases by China; however, interest in soybean auctions in China remains at a low level.
Details of Soybean Auctions in China
China's Sinograin sold 209,904 tons of soybeans on October 13, which is equivalent to 40.5 percent of the total 517,858 tons offered, in a government auction. This auction included soybeans harvested in the years 2023, 2024, and 2025, and the average transaction price in this auction was recorded at 4,298.4 yuan per ton (equivalent to 642 dollars per ton).
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According to reports, the transactions made in this auction were equivalent to the commercial value of Brazilian soybean shipments in October at 274 cents per bushel compared to November (X). On October 14, China's National Grain Trade Center announced that another auction of 504,000 tons of soybeans from state reserves would be held on October 20.
Factors Affecting Demand Decline
Although auction prices appear to be more competitive compared to Brazilian soybeans, a source based in China stated that interest in these auctions has decreased. According to this trader, Chinese buyers do not seem to be facing a soybean shortage at the moment, and inventories are sufficiently available until January 2027.
Furthermore, the lack of interest in purchasing may also be related to low profit margins in China. One trader said, "Profit margins are not suitable, and the results of the auctions in recent weeks have generally been similar." Current margins for shipments close to the date have been calculated at negative 25 dollars per ton.
While soybean prices in auctions generally seem competitive, additional transportation and domestic logistics costs have also impacted buyer interest. One Chinese trader said, "On paper, soybeans may seem cheap, but buyers still have to consider transportation, logistics, and other costs."
On October 15, the net margins analyzed by Platts reached negative 19.52 dollars per ton, a decrease of 4.25 dollars from the previous day.
American sources have diverse opinions regarding the opportunities created by China's auctions for American soybeans. A trader in the New Orleans CIF market said, "China's auctions have not been as popular as expected," adding that "their last tender was also unsuccessful."
Meanwhile, some market participants have reported renewed interest in purchasing near-dated soybeans from the U.S., while demand for Brazilian shipments has remained limited due to higher prices. According to Platts' assessment, the FOB soybean price in New Orleans for loading in November reached 505.23 dollars per ton, and the FOB soybean price in Santos for loading in November reached 517.38 dollars per ton. Additionally, the CFR soybean price in China for loading in November was reported at 582.30 dollars per ton.
On October 14, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed the private sale of 470,000 tons of soybeans from the U.S. for delivery to China in the 2026-27 marketing year, followed by another 330,000 tons confirmed on October 15.
Sources in the Brazilian market believe that the opportunity for American soybeans is seasonal and will not have a significant long-term impact on Brazilian soybeans. One Brazilian trader said, "What we are seeing is a seasonal adjustment based on government actions, not a structural shift away from Brazil." Although low-priced American shipments may still attract optional demand for loading in late 2026 and possibly January, Brazil's position remains supported due to the high share of coverage of new Chinese harvests that have already been registered.
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