OPEC+, which includes its seven main members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, is set to discuss oil production policy for November virtually on Sunday.
Maintaining Production Targets in November
Two sources familiar with the matter have told Reuters that these countries are likely to maintain their current production targets for November. However, the final decision will not be made until before the meeting takes place. The increase in oil prices above $100 per barrel and the reduced access of independent Chinese refineries to cheap oil from sources like Iran and Venezuela are among the factors influencing this decision.
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Oil Production and Exports in the Persian Gulf
In recent months, OPEC+ has gradually rolled back some of the production cuts that began in 2023. The total of these rolled-back cuts has reached about 1.65 million barrels per day. However, increasing quotas has not necessarily led to a similar increase in actual production. Disruptions in Persian Gulf oil exports, particularly issues arising in the Strait of Hormuz, have caused production and exports from some regional members to remain below official targets.
In August, OPEC+ production reached about 25 million barrels per day, an increase of about 630,000 barrels per day compared to July, but still about 5 million barrels per day less than pre-war levels. These increases were designed to gradually phase out the 1.65 million barrels per day cut that was implemented in 2023.
Review of Member Production Capacity
OPEC+ is conducting an assessment of its members' sustainable production capacity to use as a basis for determining next year's quotas. A report from the consulting firm DeGolyer and MacNaughton is also expected to be utilized in this process. The official meeting of OPEC ministers and non-OPEC countries is scheduled for November 29, 2026.
The stabilization of quotas comes at a time when oil prices are still affected by developments in the Middle East, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and disruptions in the supply of petroleum products. In trading on Wednesday, September 30, Brent for November delivery was trading at around $103.19 per barrel. U.S. WTI oil was also trading at around $90.57.
Overall, keeping quotas stable does not necessarily mean that actual supply will remain unchanged. If Persian Gulf export disruptions decrease, some member countries may be able to bring more oil to the market than in recent months.
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