Brent oil prices rose by 2.4% to $113 per barrel by the end of last week. This price increase coincided with the end of the December 2026 contract, which closed at $117.64 per barrel on its last trading day. In recent weeks, the number of attacks on ships in the Caspian Sea has increased, raising concerns about its impact on the oil market.
Concerns Over New Tensions in the Middle East
Concerns about potential new attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran, following the U.S. midterm elections, have affected prices. Meanwhile, Iranian negotiators in Doha discussed with Qatari mediators, but the outcomes of these negotiations remain unclear.
Read more: Nasrallah Pezeshkian emphasized the establishment of a gas savings measurement system
Recent movements in the oil market indicate growing concerns about the potential escalation of hostilities between the United States and Iran. If the midterm elections conclude without an agreement or an attack, the main question will be whether the market will move towards reducing geopolitical risks.
Impact of Attacks on Russian Refineries
In Russia, Ukrainian attacks on refineries have resumed. These attacks come after weeks in which refineries were spared from Ukrainian assaults, and this lull had contributed to a decrease in global diesel prices. According to Russian officials, the country plans to export 2.15 million tons of diesel in November, a significant increase from 500,000 tons in October.
The OPEC+ organization held a meeting last weekend to discuss production policies for December and decided to maintain production targets unchanged. Given the disruptions in the Persian Gulf, most OPEC+ members have kept their production significantly below the set targets.
Recent data indicate an increase in long positions in Brent oil, reaching 245,457 contracts. However, long positions are highly volatile due to existing market risks, and investors should exercise greater caution in their purchases.
Read more: Rapid reduction of excess oil production capacity in OPEC+ · Difference in Brent oil prices between OilPrice and Trading Economics
