Bank of America in its latest report on transportation and supply chain data announced that container transit through the Red Sea has returned to 65% of its normal levels over the past two weeks. This recovery from 50% in September indicates a return of shipping lines to the Red Sea route.
Decrease in port traffic and forecast of challenges
Global port traffic has decreased to 10% of the fleet, down from peaks of 11-12%. This decline is due to reduced traffic in North Asia. However, it is expected that port traffic will increase in the coming weeks due to disruptions caused by Storm Champi and the accumulation of ships returning to the Red Sea route.
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Shipping rates and future forecasts
Container rates in long-distance trades appear to have peaked. Shipping rates to Europe and the Pacific are close to the Shanghai Container Freight Index levels. Meanwhile, spot rates for tankers have decreased from recent peaks but remain at high levels. Actual Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates for routes from Oman to China are $650,000 per day and for routes from the United States to China are $450,000 per day. Forecasts suggest that average VLCC rates may remain around $200,000 per day by 2027.
Dry shipping rates in the fourth quarter of 2026 have increased by 31% compared to last year. The traffic of cargo ships in the Panama Canal is also 30% lower than last year, although water levels have improved in recent weeks. Forecasts indicate that average rates in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027 will still be 25% higher than last year.
In September 2026, demand for car carriers increased by 9.4% compared to last year. Overall, demand for the first nine months of 2026 is 10.4% higher than last year. Hoegh rates (excluding fuel) have returned to 4% above last year.
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