Futures prices of soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade on October 26, 2023, decreased significantly due to the sharp decline in the value of the Brazilian real following Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's victory in the presidential elections. The soybean contract on the CBOT reached $12.535 per bushel at 4:46 AM Central Time (9:46 GMT), showing a 1.2% decrease compared to the previous settlement.
The Status of the Brazilian Real and Its Impact on Soybean Exports
In this context, the Brazilian real fell to 18 cents at 4:47 AM Central Time on the Chicago trading floor, which is 10.3% lower than the previous settlement of 20 cents on October 23. The depreciation of the Brazilian currency leads to increased export returns for the country, including soybean exports.
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Brazil is recognized as the largest exporter of soybeans in the world, followed by the United States and Argentina. After Flávio Bolsonaro defeated Lula in the first round of the Brazilian presidential elections on October 4, the Brazilian real had strengthened against the US dollar.
Forecasts for Soybean Production and Exports
The National Supply Company of Brazil (Conab) has forecast that soybean production for the marketing year 2026-27 (January-December) will reach a record 181.6 million tons, indicating a 0.7% increase compared to the previous year. Additionally, for the marketing year 2025-26, soybean production in Brazil is estimated at 180.4 million tons, reflecting a 5.2% increase compared to the previous year.
Analysts at S&P Global Energy CERA have predicted that soybean production for the marketing year 2026-27 will reach 177 million tons, showing a 2.2% decrease compared to the previous year. It is also estimated that soybean exports for the year 2026-27 will reach 118 million tons, which is 1.5% more than the previous year.
In September 2023, Brazil exported 7.4 million tons of soybeans, which is a 24.5% decrease compared to the previous month and a 1.4% increase compared to the previous year. So far in 2026, Brazil has exported 100.2 million tons of soybeans, showing a 6.7% increase compared to the previous year. Of this amount, 70 million tons were exported to China, accounting for 69.9% of Brazil's total soybean exports in 2026.
Finally, soybean exports from Brazil are expected to decline in the coming months due to the local supply shortage season, while Brazilian soybeans are currently in the planting season, and supply is expected to improve in January and February.
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