The International Energy Agency (IEA) has announced in a new report that the global gas market may remain significantly under pressure until 2027. This prediction comes as Europe enters the summer season with the lowest gas storage levels in over a decade.
Impact of the Hormuz Strait Crisis on the Gas Market
The IEA report indicates that the Hormuz Strait crisis has seriously affected gas markets in Europe and Asia. Despite the development of international gas market connections and an increase in spot trading, there has been no significant recovery in liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows from the Hormuz Strait, and the approach of winter has intensified competition for gas supply. This situation has led to LNG and gas prices reaching their highest levels since the supply crisis of 2022-2023.
Read more: Reduction of Gas Waste in Markazi Province with Educational Programs
Decrease in LNG Volume from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates
The International Energy Agency has reported that LNG loadings from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have decreased by over 60 billion cubic meters from March to October. This sharp decline has been partially offset by increased production and LNG exports from new projects in North America and Africa. Additionally, increased gas supply from established producers in Africa, Asia, and Russia has also contributed to this situation.
LNG production outside the Gulf has increased by 14 percent, equivalent to over 40 billion cubic meters annually from March to October, which has compensated for two-thirds of the decrease in Gulf LNG deliveries. However, global LNG production during this period has decreased by 6 percent, equivalent to about 20 billion cubic meters.
The IEA has predicted that global LNG supply will decrease by 3 percent in 2026, marking the most significant annual decline in recorded history. This prediction is based on the assumption that flows from the Hormuz Strait will remain largely disrupted until the end of 2026.
Last week, Qatar indicated the likelihood of continued disruptions in LNG supply until the end of the year, as the state-owned Qatar Energy has extended force majeure for LNG deliveries to most customers until the end of December 2026. Additionally, the decrease in storage levels in Europe could significantly increase the need for further injections of reserves in the summer of 2027, which may continue to exert pressure on the global market until next year.
Read more: Impact of Conflicts on Global Oil and Gas Supply Chains · Gas Consumption Management by Identifying 61,000 High-Consumption Customers in Kermanshah
