Analysts at CERA in their latest report forecast that the global tanker fleet capacity will rise from 703.72 million tons by the end of 2025 to 743.56 million tons in 2026, 778.35 million tons in 2027, and 830.61 million tons in 2028, reaching 862.98 million tons by 2029. This increase represents a cumulative growth of 22.6 percent over the next four years.
Market Impacts on Freight Rates
The CERA report indicates that the tanker market is entering a period where demand must work hard to absorb supply. The key issue is whether demand in ton-miles, fleet removals, sanctions-related deficiencies, and operational segmentation can absorb this growth without a significant reduction in utilization and freight rates. Tanker rates reached unprecedented levels following the outbreak of the Iran-U.S. war at the end of February. The increased need for ships due to importers in Asia seeking cargoes from farther regions and Middle Eastern producers relying on ship-to-ship transfers to mitigate transit risks in the Strait of Hormuz have contributed to this rise.
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New Tanker Rates and Prices
Tanker freight rates in various sectors have reached unprecedented levels. According to Platts assessments, part of S&P Global Energy, the global dirty tanker index for non-scrubber tankers reached $840,921.58 per day on November 2, showing an increase of over 400 percent from $161,876.1 on February 27. Additionally, the global clean tanker index for non-scrubber tankers increased to $143,454.09 per day from $38,131.69 during the same period, indicating an increase of over 275 percent.
CERA analysts also noted that deficiencies cannot expand indefinitely and expect that normalizing geopolitical trade patterns, easing sanctions, or the return of limited ships to main hiring could increase effective supply faster than the main fleet figures suggest.
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) capacity is expected to rise from 273.31 million tons in 2025 to 359.28 million tons in 2029, while Suezmax capacity will also reach 143.13 million tons. These figures represent a 31.5 percent increase for VLCC and a 30.6 percent increase for Suezmax. Deliveries of product tankers are mainly expected to decline in 2026-2027.
Tanker Price Developments
XClusiv Shipbrokers assessed the newbuilding prices in October for a VLCC at $131.5 million, Suezmax at $90.5 million, and Aframax at $78 million. Additionally, second-hand estimates indicate sharper increases, including a ten-year-old VLCC that has reached $186 million, representing a 117 percent increase from last year.
This market is characterized by "selective investment rather than general buying appetite," with 371 tankers offered for sale in September and October, of which only 146 transactions were completed. These figures indicate that purchases have mainly focused on larger tankers.
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