Russian crude oil exports reached 3 million and 650 thousand barrels per day in the four weeks ending November 1. This increase has occurred as Ukraine's attacks on Russian refining facilities have temporarily stopped. Data from tanker tracking, collected by reliable sources, shows that this figure has increased by 60 thousand barrels per day compared to the revised statistics for the period ending October 25.
Attacks on refining facilities and their consequences
However, Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries have resumed since late last week, and at least four refining units have been targeted since Friday. The Novokuibyshevsk refinery in the Samara region and a refining unit in the city of Ufa in Bashkortostan have been among these targets. These attacks resumed after an almost two-week hiatus, and damage to refining infrastructure usually forces Moscow to send crude oil that cannot be processed to export markets.
Increase in refining capacity and oil exports
In the week ending November 1, 38 tankers loaded a total of 27 million and 800 thousand barrels of Russian crude oil. This is while the week before, 37 tankers had loaded about 27 million and 120 thousand barrels of oil. Therefore, Russian oil exports last week increased by 100 thousand barrels per day to an average of 3 million and 970 thousand barrels per day, the highest level in the past five weeks. Additionally, Russia's export destinations, including China and India as the largest buyers of its crude oil, continued during this period.
Moreover, Moscow's oil revenues have slightly increased during this period, reaching a three-week record of 2 billion and 660 million dollars per week. However, the decline in the price of Urals, the main export benchmark for Russia, has largely offset the minor increase in export volume.
Ultimately, with the final destination of nearly 2 million barrels per day of moving oil becoming clear, export statistics to these regions may increase, although past experience shows that most shipments with intermediate destinations eventually get unloaded at ports in India or China.
