Maritime freight rates from China to the East Coast of the U.S. have reached about $11,000, which is only 7% lower than the peaks during COVID. Additionally, freight rates from China to the West Coast of the U.S. are also approaching $8,000. This situation indicates an unexpected shift in the maritime freight market in 2026.
Analysis of the Maritime Freight Market Situation
At the beginning of 2026, analysts generally agreed that high supply and weak demand would keep prices stable or declining. At the start of the year, maritime freight rates on the trans-Pacific route averaged around $2,000, and even geographical fluctuations in the Middle East had little impact on the market. However, since the beginning of June, prices have increased significantly, leading to a sudden change in market conditions.
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Factors Influencing Price Increases
Rising fuel costs, particularly the price of VLSFO in Singapore, which has risen from $400 in January to $900 in September, is recognized as one of the main factors behind the price increases. However, this cost increase alone cannot explain the over 300% rise in prices. Additionally, network changes due to geopolitical unrest in the Middle East and the impact of storms have also influenced this trend, with four storms in the last seven weeks causing delays and cancellations of shipments.
Furthermore, the increase in demand in July, especially for shipments from China to Europe with a 12% rise compared to last year, signals a positive trend in the market. However, this trend has only seen a 4% increase on the route from China to the U.S., indicating a balanced response to market conditions.
Ultimately, this combination of factors is expected to lead to continued price increases. While weather forecasts and geographical conditions next year may have further impacts on the market, the current situation indicates a fierce competition in the maritime freight market.
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