The global oil market is moving towards a surplus. This conclusion is based on analyses conducted by global investment banks such as JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. According to a report by JPMorgan, the global oil market is expected to have a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, and this figure is projected to rise to 1.4 million barrels per day in October. These numbers approximately match last year's average of 1.3 million barrels per day.
Market Analysis and Its Impacts
Goldman Sachs also stated that the oil market has balanced out in September and October, despite reports of increased oil exports from the Gulf and Iran's severe attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The bank reported that no global reduction in oil inventory has been identified in the past two months, while reductions had occurred in previous months due to fuel price controls.
Read more: Decrease in Natural Gas Prices in Europe with Hopes for an Iran Agreement
While there seem to be signs of a surplus in the market, futures prices and physical prices are still significantly higher than at the beginning of this year. This suggests that it may be a bit early to declare a surplus. Meanwhile, market realities, including the consequences of the war in Ukraine, continue to impact prices.
Oil Exports from the Strait of Hormuz
According to new reports, oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz are estimated to average 14 million barrels per day, including condensates. This figure is equivalent to 86% of pre-war levels. However, according to oil market analyst George Morris, October data indicates that maritime oil exports from the Middle East have slightly decreased from recent peaks following the war, due to increased risks in the Strait of Hormuz.
The International Energy Agency in its latest monthly report estimated that oil demand this year has decreased by 2.6 million barrels per day. At the same time, the agency estimated that supply improved by 2.5 million barrels in September, but warned that on an annual basis, supply will decrease by 5.8 million barrels per day, reaching a total of 100.7 million barrels per day.
Read more: Increase in Oil Prices Considering the Uncertainties of the Iran War · Return of Oil Prices After Severe Decline Due to the Iran War
