Rystad Energy has concluded in the fifth edition of its annual report titled Global Energy Scenarios GES 2026 that global dependency on energy imports will peak by 2034. This change occurs due to concerns over energy security and acceleration on the electrification front.
Impact of Recent Crises on Energy Dependency
This report examines rapidly deployable technologies that help the energy system remain resilient against major disruptions in energy flows, considering the recent energy crises over the past five years. Wars in Ukraine and conflicts between the United States and Israel with Iran, which have significantly impacted flows from the Strait of Hormuz, are serious tests for the energy system.
Read more: Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's Agreement for Supplying Russian Diesel to America
Future Trends in Energy Import Dependency
In 2021, Russia supplied about 36 percent of Europe's gas imports, while the United States accounted for about 6 percent. However, it is projected that by 2025, Russia's share will decrease to about 7.5 percent, while U.S. liquefied natural gas will reach about 21 percent. These infrastructures help the system face challenges in the competition for LNG cargoes in Europe and Asia.
In the oil sector, pipelines, storage, and demand response in various countries, especially China, have played a significant role. Diesel reserves are also 14 percent below their five-year average, and diesel prices in the United States have surpassed $100 per barrel.
To protect consumers, nearly 100 countries have reduced fuel taxes or controlled prices since February 2026. Additionally, 60 countries have taken measures to reduce demand, and 34 countries have addressed structural changes. Among these, 26 countries have adopted electrification policies.
The Rystad Energy report also introduces a new scenario titled Pragmatism, which gradually strengthens current policies and predicts that primary energy demand will reach 702 exajoules by 2050. This scenario indicates that liquid demand will decrease by an average of 2.2 percent per year.
Read more: Russia and America's Diesel Agreement to Curb Fuel Prices · 23 Percent Decrease in Indonesia's Coal Exports Due to Lack of Global Demand
