Gibson's recent analysis indicates that nearly 878 tankers, equivalent to 15 percent of the commercial tanker fleet, are under sanctions, with this figure rising to 25 percent for Aframax and LR2 tankers. These sanctions are primarily overseen by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), and only 325 tankers are on this list, of which 153 are of the VLCC type.
Sanctions and Their Impact on the Market
In total, 164 VLCC tankers are under sanctions, along with 28 of 116 Suezmax tankers and 42 of 322 Aframax and LR2 tankers that are only monitored by OFAC. The sanctions have impacted the capacity of the tanker fleet and limited the available options in the market. Overall, 84 percent of the tankers only monitored by OFAC are located in the Middle East, the Indian Ocean, or the Far East, with only 16 tankers in European waters. Therefore, any direct impact of these sanctions will be felt more in Eastern markets.
Status of Iran's Sanctioned Fleet
Iran directly has 64 sanctioned tankers, including 38 VLCCs, and there may be more of these tankers under the ownership of Iranian interests in other areas. Due to connections with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), OFAC may be reluctant to issue exemptions for these tankers. Additionally, Chinese and Hong Kong owners also have 43 other tankers that could theoretically operate in the Middle East.
About 70 percent of the tankers monitored by OFAC are over 20 years old, including 120 tankers out of 163 VLCCs. While current conditions have reduced the importance of tanker age, many charters will not be able to use these tankers without IG P&I coverage and IACS classification. The primary use of these tankers is likely on the shuttle routes in Hormuz, where recent attacks have impacted supply.
However, major buyers may wish to apply for permits to purchase sanctioned tankers, and an increase in the number of these tankers could affect second-hand market values. Russian exporters may face increased shipping costs if some of their commercial fleet is drawn into Middle Eastern business. The duration of any exemptions is also important, as a short-term exemption may not be sufficient for charters to commit to long-term voyages.
This exemption may particularly add to the capacity of the Hormuz shuttle trade and could have impacts on the shipping market. Most of the tankers that may be added to this market are old and primarily of the VLCC type, located east of Suez. Since any removal of tankers from the list must be accompanied by a thorough OFAC review, it may take a long time to free a significant number of tankers for mainstream trade. Ultimately, the number of exemptions granted will determine whether any specific impact is felt.
Read more: The VLCC market faces challenges in week 42 of 2026
