Sunflower oil exports from the Black Sea region in the 2026-27 marketing year (September-August) will remain below historical levels due to the escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine. This was announced by industry officials at the Global Oils Conference in Mumbai.
Impact of the War on Ukrainian Exports
In August and September, military attacks between Russia and Ukraine have damaged storage facilities and terminals in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov ports, disrupting the loading of ships from the two largest sunflower oil suppliers in the world. Andrey Palachy, head and commercial director of vegetable oils and proteins at Inerco Trade, stated that Ukrainian exports improved in October compared to the previous month, but will still remain below normal levels. He predicted that about 300,000 tons of sunflower oil will be exported from Ukraine from October to March, which is nearly half of the usual export flow.
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Russian Exports and Target Markets
Russian exports are also expected to be lower than last year, according to Anton Gritsai, CEO of EFKO, one of the largest refiners and exporters of vegetable oils in Russia. Gritsai stated that Russia expects to export 150,000 to 170,000 tons of sunflower oil through the Baltic ports, and rail exports to China will be about 50,000 to 70,000 tons per month. Additionally, another 50,000 to 70,000 tons will be exported through the Caspian Sea ports. Overall, Russian sunflower oil monthly exports are projected to be between 250,000 and 300,000 tons from October to March, down from about 400,000 tons last year.
Despite the decrease in exports, India is expected to remain the largest buyer of Russian vegetable oils, with exports to this country projected to be between 2 million and 2.5 million tons in the 2026-27 marketing year, while Turkey may also import another million tons.
In the first 10 months of India's vegetable oil marketing year 2026-27 (November-October), sunflower oil imports have reached 2.515 million tons, up from 2.4 million tons in 2025-26. Gritsai also predicts that the price of sunflower oil this year will be around $1,450 per ton.
Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, has assessed the FOB price of Ukrainian sunflower oil in the Black Sea for loading in November unchanged at $1,130 per ton.
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