In the second quarter of 2026, 2157 cargo and oil tankers with a capacity of over 10,000 DWT suddenly ceased their maritime activities. This figure represents nearly a fivefold increase compared to the 449 recorded in the first quarter of the same year. Additionally, the number of prolonged dark events, defined as those lasting three days or more, rose to 3137, indicating a sevenfold increase. Russia alone recorded nearly 4000 dark activities during this period.
Severe Decline in Maritime Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical point for ship traffic, experienced an 83% reduction in visible traffic with AIS since February 28, 2026. The number of transits dropped from about 3750 per month to 450. Despite the decrease in reporting, ship activities have not completely halted; they have merely refrained from sending information.
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Reasons for Ships Going Dark
The failure to send AIS information by ships can occur for various reasons. Lack of coverage in congested waters and GPS interference are commonly recognized reasons. According to Windward data, over 24000 ships were affected by interference between the first and third quarters of 2025, with their average position jump reaching 6300 kilometers. In this context, intentional cases typically revolve around a few specific objectives. For example, an oil tanker may turn off its signal before transferring cargo to avoid linking its source to sanctioned ports.
A common point in these cases is that the very act of not sending information is considered a signal. The starting location, duration of the blackout, and where the ship reappears provide more information than previous transmissions.
How to Track Dark Ships
Tracking a ship without AIS involves following a sequence of steps that narrows the search scope with each step. The first step is to examine the ship's behavior instead of relying on AIS signals. The last position transmission indicates the ship's route and speed. Windward uses its maritime AI to assess any gaps against the historical activities of that ship.
Detecting the physical presence of ships using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is also possible. These radars can detect ship hulls beyond weather conditions or darkness. Additionally, SAR images typically cover a broader area and are suitable as the first sensor for initial identification. Windward also matches each radar detection against AIS to ensure that only unreported contacts remain.
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