Maritime transport in the Arctic, especially in the energy sector, is rapidly changing. According to a report by Belona, by mid-September 2026, 50 oil tankers and 18 shadow-class LNG carriers have been observed on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) of Russia. This number represents a significant increase compared to the entire year of 2025, which included 38 oil tankers and 13 LNG carriers. About three-quarters of the observed tankers on this route and nearly 40 percent of the LNG carriers were under sanctions.
Challenges and Ice Conditions
The increase in traffic on the NSR means it is not a typical option for any type of cargo. Container traffic remains limited, and ice conditions, vessel capabilities, and access to emergency support are still factors affecting transport safety. Belona has reported that several low ice-class tankers have faced difficult conditions this season, leading to increased distances and delays in their passage. Additionally, the NSR administration no longer publishes notices regarding incidents and accidents, which reduces public transparency about events on this route.
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Greenland Security Agreement and Its Impact
Energy trade is one of the main factors in these changes. Russia's exports of oil and LNG are shifting towards Asian buyers, and the European Union's complete ban on Russian LNG imports starting in early 2027 creates additional pressure to reassess markets and future routes. For charterers, insurers, and contracting parties, questions go beyond distance and transit time: the condition of the vessel, ice class, ownership, exposure to sanctions, insurance, and the ability to respond to incidents are of high importance.
On September 22, Greenland, Denmark, and the United States signed an agreement that updates their long-term defense arrangements. This agreement allows the United States to modernize and expand its activities at the Pituffik space base and identifies Narsarsuaq and Mesterivik as locations for establishing additional defense zones. The details of these zones still require mutual agreement, and this agreement will come into effect after the necessary parliamentary procedures are completed.
Greenland's position for transport through the Denmark Strait, the Greenland-Iceland-UK gap, and proximity to the North Atlantic Ocean is significant. Increased monitoring and military activities could enhance awareness of vessel movements in these waters. However, this alone does not create new restrictions for commercial navigation and does not mean that vessels in the NSR of Russia will be monitored or stopped from Greenland.
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