Shipowners at the 10th Annual International Maritime Transport Conference in Pudong, Shanghai, warned about the delay in the acceptance of alternative marine fuels until 2035. Lucas Barmparis, President of Safe Bulkers, acknowledged that ambiguity in carbon reduction regulations and limited input capacity to shipyards will delay the transition to alternative fuels.
Existing Barriers in Marine Decarbonization
Barmparis described the marine decarbonization process as "somewhat stalled" and stated that current advancements are more focused on improving the energy efficiency of existing ships and new designs. Dario Bacchi, head of energy savings and design at Grimaldi Group, also pointed to the uncertainty in decisions by the International Maritime Organization, which has hindered new orders and compelled owners to revert to traditional ships.
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Fuel Challenges and Demand
Furthermore, Hor Weng Yu, CEO of Pacific Carriers Limited, stated that owners may focus on improving fuel efficiency and delay long-term fuel decisions. He emphasized, "A non-reversible commitment while fuel pathways, infrastructure, and economics are still evolving is difficult." However, he stressed that owners can upgrade ships and collaborate with charterers to enhance efficiency without waiting for the final fuel pathway.
Bacchi also added that new orders for dual-fuel ships, such as new methanol-compatible orders, may not guarantee that a ship will operate entirely on methanol. Fuel and logistics costs will determine actual usage, while producers need demand from more than a few owners to support supply growth. He said, "However, we must start; otherwise, we will never do it."
DNV announced that over 294 methanol-compatible ships are under construction globally by August 2026, making methanol the second-largest alternative fuel technology in the order book after LNG. The figures for LNG-compatible ships reach 991, ammonia-compatible ships 42, and hydrogen-compatible ships 25.
Forecasts estimate the demand for low-carbon marine fuels, which includes low-GHG fuels in general, to be between 4 to 22 million tons of oil equivalent by 2030, depending on regulatory outcomes. DNV noted that the scale of production depends on the confidence that demand will materialize. It also stated that the existing fleet and order book will largely determine the fuels that maritime transport can consume in 2030.
Dimitris Veranopoulos, President and CEO of Marine Plus, stated that the fuel supply and trade pattern will continue to limit owners' investments in dual-fuel ships. He added, "Even after 2030, this will be very difficult and challenging" and emphasized that "everything must happen simultaneously."
On October 19, Platts assessed the price of low-carbon methanol in Singapore at $1,040 per ton, unchanged from the previous session, while low-carbon methanol FOB Shanghai remained stable at $815 per ton amid weak trading.
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