Crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf reached 81% of pre-war levels in September. According to newly released data, this figure does not include Iranian oil exports, which have dropped to zero. Specifically, Saudi Arabia has had a significant impact on this improvement by increasing its exports.
Increase in Saudi Arabia's Exports
Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased from 4.2 million barrels per day in August to around 6.6 million barrels per day in September. This increase has not only helped improve Saudi exports but has also compensated for the decline in exports from other oil and gas producers in the Persian Gulf. According to Vortexa data, the average crude oil, condensate, and liquefied gas exports last month reached 19.2 million barrels per day, which is still lower than the 23.6 million barrels per day before the war began, but shows improvement compared to previous months.
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Future Challenges and Volatility
Kpler data shows that crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf averaged 18.6 million barrels per day in September. On some days last month, crude oil flows from the Persian Gulf even exceeded pre-war levels, recording figures between 19.5 million barrels and 22.5 million barrels per day from September 27 to 29. However, Vortexa has warned about fuel exports. The analytical company noted that crude oil flows have returned to 91% of pre-war levels, but fuel exports have only reached 60% of the pre-war level, which averaged 7.3 million barrels per day.
Furthermore, it remains unclear whether the flow rates in September can be sustained in the long term. One of Vortexa's analysts, Clare Jungmann, stated: "Daily flows are significantly more volatile compared to pre-war levels, so the key question is whether recent levels can be sustained."
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